Pro Poker School

Ok so I have been reading about different ways to figure out pot odds and outs etc and this got me thinking.

Most of the time I find myself in the situation where I have the best hand and I am trying to get someone off a flush or stright draw.

for example,

I have - AK off
player has - As 2s suited

Board - Ks 7s 4

Blinds are 100 - 200, I vary my preflop raises between 3x - 5x the big blind. I raised to 750 everyone folds except the big blind calls.

The pot now has 1600 in it. Now from my understanding a flush draw to the river is about 36 %, 19% for the turn and 19% for the river. unless the player or I is going to be in an all in situation, the player should fold unless he is getting 4:1 odds to call one off for the turn to try and draw to the flush.

So now if I bet 1/2 the pot is 3:1, 3/4 the pot 2.5:1, or the full pot is 2:1, I would be taking the pot odds away to make calling a flush draw to the turn incorrect. So why is it that no matter where I play, online, the local poker league, the casino, nobody will fold a flush draw? The only way to get them to fold and it only work 20% of the time at best, is if I go all-in. This only works if you both have stacks about the same size and if they are short stacked they will call and if they are the table big stack they will call.

Not sure what to do in this situation, I'm either getting killed or survive for a couple dozen hands before I find myself in this situation again.

Thanks

Robert

your idea is correct, but you are forgetting about implied odds.

what if that person makes the flush, how much more can he factor in that he will make on the turn and/or river after making the flush?

so yea, if you bet the pot, he is getting 2:1 on hitting 4:1, but if he believes you will call a pot size bet on the turn after hitting the flush, then he is actually getting

$1 in the pot.
you bet 1, he has 2:1 to call, he calls 1.
4 in the pot.
he makes the flush, he bets 4 you call 4.

so in actuality...
3/4 times he loses 1 on the call
1/4 times he wins 7 on the call

-1, -1, -1, +7 totals +4 so its a good call.

this is like the cliff notes version of this concept, numbers might be off a bit. for more details and a better example read this page I wrote: http://www.checktheodds.com/impliedodds.html

other factors to consider:
do the players have more chips so that if he hits will he get paid off, how often will he get paid off by you, does he have other outs, can he be up against a bigger flush draw, exposed cards, etc. etc.

Plus and this sounds stupid but it is probably true for many that don't even consider the odds in any way: most people get that 'feeling' of its 'my turn' so they feel destiny is with them. When they are losing they are thinking 'my turn' to get it back and when they are winning they are thinking 'my turn' because I am on a rush

You are correct in your calculations of pot odds, however there are some other facts to consider, one of them being "pot odds"'s cousin, 'Implied Odds'.

Implied odds are the theoretical chips your opponent can extract from you if he hits, so if he felt he could extract enough chips later in the hand if he hits to make it overall less then 4-1 then he is getting a good price. To combat this, bet larger. If you think your opponent will call a lot with a flush draw, over price him even with implied odds and be better at laying down hands against opponents after they make their draws, by doing this, you have made them make a mistake in what they expected to extract from you, finally making it a bad flop call.