7 Card Stud

Stud Hi Tournaments Is Luck Random

Lately I've found myself entering more $50 buy in tournaments, whether it be Stud, Omaha or Hold 'Em. Some of these, especially Stud, are small, often 30 to 40 people or less. There can be a lot of luck involved, as one bad hand can hurt your stack quite a bit when it comes late in a tournament. Your great starting hand can have you investing a bunch of chips in a pot, then it turns bad and you have to lay it down, abandoning a large chunk of those precious few chips you have left. Such is poker, especially Stud it seems. To my way of thinking, this element of the game is out of my control. Mostly, but not entirely perhaps! Do I thinks I can control luck' Kind of, yes. Okay, settle down and give me a little latitude here and I'll explain.

Because of the luck factor being a large variable in poker, I like to play those $50 buy-in tournaments. That way if I play well, but get unlucky, I haven't laid out hundreds only to have one bad hand rip the cash from my hands. If you are a starting Stud player, I recommend these to cut your Stud teeth, and I still like them now in any case.

Saturday night I sat down with my laptop, preparing for my favorite online Stud tournament, the $215 buy in Stud Hi-Lo Split on PokerStars. I signed on early, and stepped into a cash game, and also noticed a $50 buy in Stud Hi only tournament, so I entered. There were 32 entrants, top five got paid, with a top prize of $640. I played with discipline, following a Stud strategy I've developed over many years of playing the game.

I played cautiously, waiting for a secure hand and pushing hard with it, raising and betting as much as I could. More importantly, though, I didn't call or limp much at all. I didn't throw a lot of chips away on hands where I hoped help would come. I'm not going to go deeply into the strategy at this point, because that is not the point. I played a conservative game, including folding a lot of hands early in a hand that might have been winners if I played them further, but which seemed to be behind. My conservative play was key. Some wouldn't choose to play this way, but I often do. By playing only very strong starting hands, I feel like most of the time I start out ahead of my opponent. If he is going after a straight or a flush, I'll be able to see it more or less from the cards showing, and a lot of the time these hands don't come. But by playing a tight, conservative strategy with big starting hands, most of the time I was up against a pair that was smaller than mine, or similar at any rate. Now comes the luck factor. Sometimes I started with a hand like KKQ against JJ8. Some of the time I hit a second pair, and my opponent did also-which results in a big win for myself. Sometimes we both missed our second pairs, and I also would win. Sometimes my opponent hit his second pair and I drew blanks. Bad luck. I lost a hand I probably should've won. But that luck you get doesn't come in a void. By playing solidly, I put myself in a position to get 'lucky' and catch some cards. If I'm the guy with the JJ8, I need to get lucky, or I'm going to be done early.

I played conservatively for the first two hours, trying my best to make sure I was the KKQ guy, not the JJ8 guy. I was patient, letting the cards come to me, and waiting for less solid players to slide their chips to me after mucking their JJ8. I built a decent stack. As the third hour began, we were down to two shorthanded tables, with 6 on each table. I began to push more with weaker hands like 1099 against small stacks to try and get them out. I was gambling. I wasn't as concerned about having a premium hand, and I was prepared to accept the idea that I might be behind. But I had enough chips against a small stack that even if I was behind, I could hit my second pair. And, if I didn't, I had enough chips to take a small hit. I doubled up the same baby stack twice in five minutes that way, but also knocked others down and out. By playing solid early, I put myself in a position where I could afford gamble. I got lucky late, no doubt.

We were down to the final three, and all of our stacks were about the same but I was a little bit ahead. I had QQ7, and one of my opponents had been raising every time they had an ace door card. Maybe she had aces, and maybe she was only trying to make us think she had them so we would fold. I called her down, and hit my second pair. She had the aces, and didn't hit her second pair. It was a big pot, and I ended up taking a big lead.

I was able to put a lot of pressure on my two remaining opponents, as they started to stay out of my way. They weren't going to catch me very easily, so perhaps their focus became to finish second, so they didn't want to play a pot with me. Because of this, I was able to extend my lead, and I ended up winning the tournament easily. When my QQ7 beat my opponent's Aces, she had a few words for me and how lucky I am. Yes, I was. But I think I played in such a way that I gave myself a better chance to get 'lucky.' How many times have you said to yourself 'Man that guy is just so lucky all the time.' Can anyone just be extremely lucky all the time' Math and logic say no.

As I wrote this, I just got to the final table of that $215 buy in Stud Hi-Lo Split I mentioned earlier, and then I won that tournament also. Not a huge field, only 47 people, but a satisfying win. Have I been lucky' Sure, I played two Stud tournaments in one night and won them both. But then again I get 'lucky' at Stud quite a bit. More so than many others I play with daily perhaps. Curious, isn't it? Now go out there and make your own luck. Develop and implement a solid strategy, stick to it, be patient, and know that luck is not an entirely random thing after all.

Jeff Henry

note by gank: Jeff Henry is an extremely talented online poker pro.